Just one day before the anniversary of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin's assassination in the Hebrew calendar (and nine days before in the Gregorian calendar), Israel has taken a historic step for future peace. On Tuesday, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, voted 67-45, with seven abstentions, in support of Prime Minister Arial Sharon's disengagement plan. All of Shas, a religious, right-wing pro-settler party, voted against the plan, in addition to six members of the National Religious Party (NRP) and 17 members of Sharon's own Likud Party, as well as members of other parties. Following the vote, Sharon dismissed ministers Landau and Ratzon for voting against the disengagement proposal, a move that had been challenged earlier in the day before Israel's Supreme Court, which confirmed Sharon's right to dismiss them. While the outcome did not come as a surprise, what will take place in the next few weeks is unsure.
There are a few paths that Sharon can take in the 14 days following the vote. Minister of Labor and Social Welfare Zevulun Orlev of the NRP announced that his party would withdraw from the Sharon coalition in 14 days if Sharon does not hold a national referendum on the disengagement plan. There are two major reasons for NRP's demand. First, it is trying to delay the implementation of the disengagement proposal, because it would take several weeks to prepare for a nationwide vote. Second, all polls are showing that a vast majority of Israelis support disengagement. Therefore, NRP, in its later support for disengagement, could say that it is acting in accordance with the voters' wishes. It is unlikely that Sharon will give in to the NRP's demands. Should Sharon not choose to hold a national referendum, he will have to either form a new, unified government with the Labor and Shinui Parties or hold national elections.
With Likud slowly moving more to the left and fragmenting, it is possible that Labor and Shinui will join Likud to create a coalition. This would be very beneficial to Israel, because it would establish a widespread coalition of the right and left that would allow the government to take drastic steps toward peace. However, politics in Israel are no different than politics elsewhere in the world. Because of the fracturing of Likud over disengagement, it is possible that Labor will make it a political issue and not join a coalition in order to force elections in an attempt to win more seats and take control of the Knesset. With this dramatic unilateral step toward peace, Israel has shown its commitment to peacefully coexist with its neighbors, and I predict that there will be more steps taken in the future to accomplish this goal.
David Manchester is a sophomore in the School of International Service.
