A panel of AU's own political pundits debated the importance and possible outcomes of the election in "Election 2004: 16 Days and Counting ... What Matters to You?" The panel of speakers included AU professors Leonard Steinhorn, Candice Nelson and Robert Pastor, with Allan Lichtman moderating.
Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1988 and authored the election-year staple "13 Keys to the Presidency" spoke first.
"Every year you hear the same thing, 'the future of the country depends on this election,'" Lichtman said. "The country will limp on either way."
However, Lichtman said "[we] have not seen the last of this presidential election."
While some put stock in the polls, Nelson, associate professor of government and director of the Campaign Management Institute, argued that some polls are insignificant.
"National polls don't mean anything," she said, adding that the most important part of the election will be battleground states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Many polls only take into account "likely voters," Nelson said. Likely voters are usually considered people who have voted before. This discounts a whole population of 18-22 year olds who will be voting for the first time, she said.
Polling was also considered by Pastor, an international affairs professor, vice president of International Affairs and director of the Center for North American Studies.
"Unlike any other election, we are polling internationally. The world is following the election," he said. "The result is very one-sided." In 30 out of 35 countries polled, the result was unfavorable towards Bush by a margin of three to one, according to Pastor.
Like the international population, the panelists were united in a belief: That problems will ensue after the election.
When asked, "is Florida going to happen again?" Pastor responded "absolutely yes."
"This election will have more problems than any previous election," he said, citing problems such as provisional balloting.
Provisional balloting is a voting system where registered voters who have moved to another county within the state, are allowed to vote in their new county even though they do not appear on the registration list. There are several lawsuits in states such as Ohio over this policy.
"No one has said how they should be counted," Pastor said. "There is no way to ascertain if someone has voted in two different places."
Pastor's solution to the problem is a national registration list, which is used in elections in Canada, as well as some European countries.
Steinhorn, who teaches the communications course PR in the Presidency, predicted another potential problem in what he called "the Colorado factor."
There is a referendum on the Colorado ballot that, if passed, will give proportionate electoral votes to the candidates. For instance, if it passes, if Bush or Kerry gets 49 percent of the vote, the candidate will get 49 percent of the electoral votes. Other states, such as Maine and Nebraska, currently use this system. The difference with Colorado is that the question of how to designate electoral votes will be on the ballot on Nov. 2. If passed, the proportionate system will be used in this election.
"It will probably go to the courts," said Steinhorn.
Whatever the result of the election, most of the panelists agreed that the result will likely be disputed.
"This will be the most litigated election in U.S. history," Pastor said. "Lawyers on both sides are being mobilized.
Also being mobilized are grassroots groups, which panelists agreed are important and are being largely ignored by the media.
More than in any other election, national parties, independent groups such as Rock the Vote and 527 groups like Americans Coming Together are registering people to vote. This encourages people who have not voted before but feel that this election is an important one.
"The real issue is not what we see in the media," Steinhorn said. "It's the ground game." He cited how Bush campaign strategist Karl Rove realized that three million Evangelical Christians did not vote in 2000, and that Bush would have won the popular vote if they had.
In 2002, said Steinhorn, "the Republicans put together a '72 Hour
Project' for the midterm elections to get out the vote." This helped the
republicans keep the majority in the house.
Another issue that could affect the outcome of the election is one of Lichtman's "keys," which he mentions in his book: scandal. Lichtman brought up the issue of how scandal regarding the Abu Gharib prison would affect the election.
However, Lichtman said it would never reach a scandal level "since the House and the Senate are controlled by Republicans."
For something to be considered a scandal, two things must happen: the scandal must be recognized by both parties and the scandal must hit the president, he said.
Lichtman added that Kerry "hasn't had the stomach to bring it up."
But Steinhorn noted that it might "be bad for Kerry to bring it up because he may be seen as not supporting the troops."
Things that Kerry might want to do to shake things up "would be to appoint a shadow cabinet," Lichtman said, though he added that it may be too late.
The effects of the presidential debates were also considered.
"If John Kerry wins the election then people will say that the debates matter a lot," Nelson said. "If George Bush wins then people will say that they don't determine very much."
Kerry has enjoyed a three to five point bounce from what his polling numbers were prior to the debates.
However, there are certain regions whose populations aren't swayed much by the debates.
Some of these regions include those affected by what Steinhorn calls the "fear factor."
"People in Iowa and Montana seem to be very worried about a terrorist attack in their town," Steinhorn said. "Yet, somewhat ironically, while people who live away from likely terror targets will largely vote for Bush, people who live in already-attacked areas, like New York and Washington, are overwhelmingly voting for Kerry."
The conference concluded with Lichtman reminding the audience that this close race is far from over.
"Don't forget, you heard it here, you haven't seen the last surprise," he said.
