Many in Washington and in the media have speculated about which U.S. Supreme Court justice will retire first, potentially allowing the winner of this year's presidential election to choose a new justice.
A new justice would affect the makeup of the Supreme Court in terms of its liberalism or conservatism, thus affecting the court's decisions.
However, Washington College of Law professor Stephen Wermiel said that the court's makeup may not change.
"Justices are very independent people and don't like to be told when to retire," he said.
President Bill Clinton appointed the last justice, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 71, in 1993.
To predict who might be appointed as a new judge, experts look at how a retiring justice's views relate to those of the president-elect. For example, said WCL professor Ira Robbins, if Democratic candidate Sen. John Kerry wins and "liberal" Justice John Paul Stevens retires, Kerry's probable appointment of another liberal judge would not have as great of an impact on the court's makeup. However, if a moderate or conservative justice retired and Kerry was elected, the new appointment would likely make waves.
Former President Gerald Ford appointed Stevens, 84, in 1975. Stevens is liberally influenced in many cases, according to WCL professor Herman Schwartz.
However, Wermiel said he does not believe the election's results will have much impact on whether Stevens decides to retire, as the justice will do so when he is ready without overly considering the political situation.
If Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist retires, the president-elect could get to make two appointments, as one associate justice would be promoted to chief justice and another associate justice would be appointed. Rehnquist, 80, was appointed as an associate justice by former President Richard Nixon in 1972 and has been chief justice since 1982.
However, Rehnquist may be less likely to retire if Kerry wins because Rehnquist is more conservative and hesitant to give Kerry the opportunity to appoint a liberal judge, Wermiel said.
If Rehnquist retires and Bush is re-elected, some believe Bush would appoint conservative Justice Antonin Scalia to be chief justice. Former President Ronald Reagan appointed Scalia, 68, in 1986.
Some have speculated that Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, 74, may retire because of her age and the fact that her husband is ill.
Schwartz said O'Connor has said publicly that she would like to return to Arizona, where she lived before Reagan appointed her to the Supreme Court in 1981. However, she said in 2000 that if Democrat Al Gore won the presidency, she would not retire.
Since O'Connor is often the court's swing vote and has been called one of the most powerful women in America, her retirement could have a great impact, Schwartz said.
Ginsburg might also retire during the next presidential term because of health issues. If she retires and Kerry wins, Kerry might consider someone with traits similar to Ginsburg's, Schwartz said.
Who might retire and who might be appointed is also affected by which party controls the Senate after this year's elections.
For example, if Kerry wins and the Republicans remain in control of the Senate, he may have to nominate a more moderate judge rather than someone more liberal, in order to have the Senate approve the nomination, the four professors said. If Bush wins, Republican control of the Senate would give Bush the opportunity to appoint a conservative justice.
Wermiel said that generally over the last 25 years, the Republicans have considered not only a potential justice's philosophies and experience, but also age. One recent example of a younger judge is Clarence Thomas, 56, who was appointed by former President George Bush in 1991.
In the past, justices have tried as many as 180 cases per year and now only have about 80 each year, government professor Karen O'Connor said. Justices also get more help from law clerks than they used to, she said.
Some people look to see if a justice has hired clerks for the next year in order to determine whether the justice will retire, according to Robbins. For instance, new clerks might indicate that they will be working with a new justice.
