The AU College Democrats' efforts to "Get Out the Vote" last Saturday canvassing in Northern Virginia paid off late Tuesday evening when current Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) won a heated gubernatorial race against challengers Jerry Kilgore (R-Va.) and Russ Potts (I-Va.) with 52 percent of the vote.
A Nov. 2 survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports had shown Kaine holding a narrow lead over Kilgore, 49 percent to 46 percent.
About 40 AU students participated in the GOTV campaign, run by the Virginia Citizens Education Project, a bi-partisan, nonprofit organization that had endorsed Kaine's plan for education. For their efforts, the volunteers received $10 an hour.
"Canvassing and field operations in general make a huge difference in elections at all levels," said Ashley Mushnick, president of the College Democrats. "For example, some Virginia House of Delegates races came down to less than 100 votes this year. Effective canvass management can be the difference between wining and losing."
"I am happy for the members of the College Democrats in that we have been shown that the election of 2004 does not symbolize an end towards achieving progress in the long run," she said.
Mushnick said that Kaine's victory has implications for both Democrats and the future of the nation.
"Electing a consecutive Democratic governor in Virginia sends a message to the White House that even in traditionally conservative states, change is happening," she said. "It shows Democrats that the Republican Party has no guaranteed ownership of any state, no matter what its traditional political persuasion. With effective messaging and campaign strategy, we have the power to take back the country.
"Nationally, these victories have implications for us because of George Bush's continuing slip in the polls," Mushnick added. "The people are rejecting the Republican agenda of cronyism, corruption and partisanship."
However, Danielle Zook, president of the AU College Republicans, said that the group does not consider election night a loss. In fact, Republicans gained a seat in Virginia when Bill Bolling won the lieutenant governor's race, she said.
Mushnick said she was happy about the number of people who showed up to canvass last weekend. The students traveled to the Crystal City Metro stop, where they were picked up by vans and escorted to a local Holiday Inn.
Upon arriving, the students were sorted into smaller groups and given a specific city or neighborhood to canvass. They then had to knock on doors, asking people to remember to vote in the Nov. 8 election and handing out door-hangers warning that 34,000 Northern Virginia teachers' salaries were at risk, as well as 80,000 children's access to preschool education and almost $148 million dollars in funding for Northern Virginian public schools.
However, not everything went smoothly last weekend.
Some van drivers got lost on the way to their respective cities. The van carrying Mushnick, College Democrats President Matt Kent and Outreach Director Lisa Petak got lost for about an hour before reaching their intended neighborhood.
Some students had trouble finding anyone at home, or getting someone at home to answer the door. They also said that good weather might have contributed to the smaller number of responses.
Clare Allenson, a freshman in the School of International Service, said the lack of response was "not surprising." Allenson, who has canvassed for local politicians in her hometown of Detroit, Mich., said that in the other campaigns she has done, about half of the people don't or won't answer their doors. Of the 19 homes she canvassed on one street, she received five positive responses and one outright refusal, where the person at the door said, "We know what we're doing."
Allenson said she felt awkward campaigning in a state where she didn't know the local issues very well. Amanda Hurley, a sophomore in the College of Arts and Sciences, also said she felt unprepared despite receiving a quick training seminar before leaving the Holiday Inn to canvass.
Hurley said one resident told her, "We're Republican," and started arguing and questioned her about state budget deficits. She said she wasn't sure of how to respond and told him to vote for Kaine.
Connie Ward, a sophomore in the School of Public Affairs from Virginia, was sent to Springfield, Va. to canvass.
"It was a lot less pressure, because I know the area," Ward said.
Ward said the people whose doors she knocked on were generally friendly. Since a majority of them were Kaine supporters, she received mostly positive responses, and only one outright refusal.
Despite a few mishaps, the AU students had an advantage while canvassing, because the people targeted by this part of the Get Out the Vote campaign were either concerned with education or were leaning more towards Kaine, said Mushnick.
"It makes you feel good once you do it successfully," she said.
Mushnick also said the election could have implications for the political future of current Gov. Mark Warner (D-Va.), who pundits have named as a potential candidate for the Democratic presidential or vice presidential nomination in 2008.
"It is impressive that he has been able to revitalize the Democratic message to a considerably conservative, Southern state with a moderate, bipartisan message of progress," Mushnick said of Warner.
Zook said that this past weekend, the College Republicans spent the weekend in Morristown, N.J. with the George Washington University College Republicans. Together, the groups made 11,000 phone calls for the Doug Forrester gubernatorial campaign in a day-and-a-half and knocked on many doors throughout Boonton Township, she said.
On Saturday, the average number of phone calls each College Republican made was over 320, Zook said. The group contributed 753 total man-hours for the entire weekend. Sen. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) later went on to defeat Forrester, 53 percent to 43 percent.
Mike Inganamort, chairman of the Washington, D.C. Federation of the College Republicans, said that the Virginia and New Jersey elections do not show any trend or indicate anything about Republican prospects for now or for the future.
"Republicans lost these same exact Governor seats in 2001 by even larger margins when President Bush's popularity was in the nineties," said Inganamort. "Were those repudiations of the President as well? It's wishful thinking to tie these to the president, but it doesn't hold up when comparing them to the exact same results in 2001."
Inganamort said, what happened was that a Democrat succeeded another Democrat in both states. As for the upcoming 2006 mid-term Senate elections, Inganamort said that the year from 2001 to 2002 is a perfect example of how much the political climate can change in a year.
"Republicans lost in 2001, Democrats got giddy, and then they went on to lose big time in 2002," he said. "So to say that two Democrat wins in 2005 will lead to Republican losses in 2006 is just silly, a year is an eternity"
