Hear that sound? That ringing you hear is the death knell of Republican control of the House and Senate-or so the Democrats hope. They cite polls showing the job approval rating of the Republican-controlled Congress at less than 30 percent and other polls that show voters favoring the generic Democrat over the generic Republican in a Congressional election by 10 percent. While the Democrats should perform better this midterm election than they did in the last one, in which they lost eight House seats and two Senate seats, it is doubtful that they will wrest Congressional control away from the Republicans.
Polls that show doom and gloom for the Republicans aren't the best source to use in gauging this November's election. Let's face it-polls are often wrong. Any poll, especially one occurring over two months before the election, is not a very reliable indicator for the actual election.
Current polls skew the results because they fail to screen out non-voters, who are more likely to be Democrat. This means that Democratic support is being overestimated. To compound this error, the Republicans have almost always done a better job of actually getting their voters to the polls. And while current polls show an extremely low approval rating for the current Congress as a whole, we must remember that we do not vote for the entire Congress. When asked only about their own member of Congress, voters give them a 55 percent approval rating.
It doesn't matter if everyone thinks that Congress is doing a horrible job; what matters is how the voters perceive their own Congressional delegation. Unless they view their own Congressional members as part of this national problem, they aren't going to replace them. Tip O'Neill, former Democratic Speaker of the House, once remarked that "all politics is local." The Republicans' strategy is to focus on state and local issues and then show how their candidates are better suited to tackle these issues. If successful, this strategy will essentially negate any of the Democrats' perceived advantage with high Congressional disapproval.
The Republicans currently hold a 231-201 advantage over the Democrats in the House, meaning the Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats. This is no easy task, especially when Forbes magazine reports that Republicans in the House raised over $12.5 million last month, a 3-to-1 advantage over the Democrats. They also hold a $1 million advantage in cash on hand. Shouldn't the Democrats have a massive fundraising advantage, because of the current extreme dislike of the GOP-controlled Congress? Also, the Democrats have to gain 15 seats, while the Republicans just have to hold onto a simple majority of the House. Although the Democrats will probably pick up seats this election-as usually happens for the minority party during midterms-it is unlikely that they will take control of the House.
If not the House, then what about the Senate? The Democrats need to pick up six seats to regain control of the Senate, while at the same time defending 17 seats (compared to Republicans' 15 endangered seats.) While the Democrats have more overall money (a $14.5 million advantage), the GOP incumbents targeted for defeat by the Democrats hold a cumulative $24 million cash advantage. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., for example, has raised over $10 million more than Bob Casey, his Democratic opponent. The Democrats will probably defeat some of the incumbent Republicans, but they do not have the numbers or the candidates to retake the Senate.
The problem the Democrats face is the same problem that they had in the Presidential election of 2004 - They cannot translate widespread voter dissatisfaction into votes. As long as the Democrats simply remain the party that stands against the Republican agenda, they won't be voted into power.
Another thing to keep in mind: 95 percent of Congressional incumbents are re-elected, regardless of any outside factors. The Democrats will probably make the 110th Congress less Republican-dominated, but barring some sort of disaster by the Republicans, they simply don't have what it takes to take control of either, let alone both, Houses of Congress.
Caleb Enerson is a sophomore in the School of Public Affairs and a conservative columnist for the Eagle.
