Republicans are likely to give up seats in both the House and Senate this election, but the change should not surprise anyone despite the image painted by the press, said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institute, at a Table Talk Forum Tuesday.
The "macro factors" of the race, such as the political environment and what people think about the direction of the country, show the Republicans have been experiencing a steady decrease in popularity even before recent controversies that have plagued the party, Mann said.
"I think there's a natural tendency in the press and among others to look for some uncertainty and excitement," Mann said. "If you really look ... at the macro indicators of this race, you will see remarkable stability, and all of it is negative for the Republican Party."
Some of the seats that Republicans anticipate losing are located in traditionally conservative districts, the panelists said.
"There are seats that [Republicans] have no business losing," said Amy Walter, an analyst for the Cook Political Report. "Tom DeLay's seat in Texas. Mark Foley's seat in Florida. ... Don Sherwood in his own level of controversy in Pennsylvania."
Many of these political losses are due to controversies surrounding the Republican candidates.
DeLay was indicted last year by a Texas grand jury for illegally providing corporate contributions during the 2002 state elections. Sherwood announced last year he had had a five-year affair with a woman who was 35 years younger than he. The woman accused him of abuse, but the two reached a settlement in November 2005.
Foley, most recently plagued by scandal, resigned his House position last Friday after sexually explicit e-mails he sent to Capitol Hill pages were found.
"I think that it's been a safe bet for many, many months that the Democrats will pick up 20 to 30 seats in the House," Mann said. "In the Senate, it's been a 50-50 proposition for many months that the Democrats will gain five or six seats."
More recent estimates, he said, have moved that range between five and seven. However, the Republican Party has benefited from "people moving to areas of like-minded people ... voting straight-party tickets ... [and] gerrymandering."
Taylor Robinson, Kennedy Political Union director and a junior in the School of Public Affairs, said she felt the experience was an important opportunity for students.
"Amy Walter and Thomas Mann are pros," she said. "They know everything there is to know about every race that's going on and every open seat, so it was fantastic to have them there to pick their brains."
Julie Munro, a freshman in SPA, said the speakers' unbiased insight benefited the event.
"It was definitely a plus to have nonpartisan speakers who could offer real insight and conclusions regarding the elections, as opposed to having the distorted opinions of a biased source," she said.
Mark Fisher, a junior from Allegheny College in the Washington Semester Program, said he had mixed feelings over the event.
"I thought it was really interesting, what [the commentators] had to say," he said. "[But] since [Washington Semester students] studied this election a lot, we knew what they were going to say"
