Only a day before the fall election, I look optimistically toward the result. It is hard to believe that the tide of politics has changed so much from two years ago. When 2005 began, the Republicans were in control of the White House, Congress and a majority of gubernatorial offices. The Democrats appeared to be locked down as a permanent minority party. Now, there is a huge national discontent against the Republican government in all directions: economy, foreign policy and even on moral values (due to the Foley scandal). While the traditional GOP base is demoralized, the Democratic base is very provoked and motivated to vote. Surging on the voter's thirst for change, the Democrats will make gains in every part of the nation.
-House races: The Republican Party may be financially affluent, but this year, it has just too many seats to protect. Currently Republicans face formidable opposition in 31 seats: three in Connecticut, one in New Hampshire, four in Pennsylvania, two in New York, three in Florida, three in Indiana, two in Colorado, one in New Mexico, one in Arizona, one in Texas, one in North Carolina, one in Iowa, one in Illinois, one in Minnesota, one in Virginia, three in Ohio and two in Kentucky. Democrats only need to win 15 out of these 31 seats, hardly a mathematical difficulty. I predict the Democrats will take over the House.
-Senate races: The Democrats are projected to win in Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Montana (John Tester) and Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse). In spite of strong challenges from Michael Steele and Tom Kean, I predict the Democrats will protect their seats in Maryland and New Jersey. The Republicans, however, will protect their seats in Tennessee (Bob Corker) and Missouri (Jim Talent). Only Virginia remains a toss-up. I therefore predict the Democrats will hold 49 or 50 seats, narrowly failing to capture the Senate. While Lieberman will win the race in Connecticut as an independent, he will in reality remain as a member of Senate Democrat caucus.
So what is the implication of this midterm election? Ultimately, the voters have given their judgment against the six years of unified Republican government. Liberals' anger against the Republican government intensified throughout the years, but even many conservatives have come to feel that their leaders have lost touch with the mainstream conservative values. While it is true that voters aren't particularly fond of Democrats either, a majority came to a conclusion that to bring about a change, a stronger opposition party is required to hold the GOP leadership accountable.
Nancy Pelosi would become the next Speaker of the House and Democrats would replace all the House chairs. The GOP Senate leadership would find the Democratic opposition to be stronger and bolder than ever before. However, this doesn't necessarily mean the Federal government would be paralyzed by bitter partisanship. As liberal as Pelosi is, she doesn't quite have the brazen leadership style of Newt Gingrich. In addition, with some 45 Blue Dog (moderate) Democrats expected in the House, Pelosi just doesn't have the political capital to push her liberal agendas.
With President Bush still in the White House, it is unrealistic to expect any major liberal legislation from the new Congress. Rather, these next two years for the Democratic Party should be a preparation for an even bigger battle in 2008. Most voters still question whether the Democratic Party has the right values and experience to lead the nation. In this election, the Democrats focused on voters' anger against the Republicans. For the next election, the Democrats should focus on winning the trust of the voters. The people want either party to demonstrate that they can solve national challenges (Iraq, gas prices, the deficit, etc). In a divided government, the Democrats have a responsibility to take the initiative and promote bipartisan solutions to the nation's problems. For the next two years of trial, I hope the Democrats prove to the voters that they can be good stewards of our government.
Jong Eun Lee is a sophomore in the College of Arts and Sciences and a liberal columnist for The Eagle.
