The stakes are high, the nation is wounded and a change is desperately needed. Here we go again. Personally, I think the Democrats will retake the House, with the Senate too close to call. Up until a few days ago, I thought the Republicans would hold their majority in the Senate by about a seat or two, but now I think the Democrats may gain six seats (Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri, Ohio and Virginia) and take control.
In Tennessee, the race between Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D) and businessman Bob Corker (R) is currently tight with Corker taking a slight lead. If elected, Ford would become the first popularly elected African-American senator from the South in U.S. history and the first African-American senator from the South since Reconstruction.
New Jersey and Connecticut remain extremely close. New Jersey is the only state where an incumbent Democrat is in a tight race against a Republican challenger (some would add Maryland, but I think Cardin takes it). Sen. Robert Menendez (D), who previously served in the House for 13 years and was appointed to the Senate when Jon Corzine became governor at the beginning of this year, faces a stiff challenge from Thomas Kean Jr., who serves in the state General Assembly. Kean's recognition comes largely from his last name, as his father, Thomas Kean, was Governor of New Jersey from 1982-1990 and Chairman of the 9/11 Commission. Menendez should prevail, but the race is tight.
Virginia poses a very interesting race. Republican incumbent George Allen was considered a lock for re-election until Aug. 11, when he twice used the word "macaca" to refer to a campaign volunteer for Allen's challenger, Jim Webb. The volunteer, who is of Indian ancestry, was born and raised in Virginia, and he was thought to be the only non-white person in the crowd of approximately 100.
Since then, Allen has had to answer questions about his racial views, including whether he used the "n-word" when he was younger. His poll numbers have plummetted, and the race is now in a dead heat. Webb, who served honorably in Vietnam and as Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration from 1987-1988, is a political novice who has had to answer questions about an article he wrote in 1979 where he expressed his opinion that women shouldn't be able to fight in combat. He has apologized in this campaign for his past statements, and said that he feels "completely comfortable" with the present roles of women within the Naval Academy and the modern military.
In Pennsylvania, Republican incumbent Rick Santorum will lose to State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., the son of the former popular governor. Santorum, a staunch conservative who supports privatizing social security and teaching "intelligent design" in public schools, has grown increasingly unpopular in his home state. Casey, a moderate, anti-choice Democrat, should win.
In Ohio, ties to disgraced Republicans like Bob Ney may cost incumbent Republican Mike DeWine his job to Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown. In Rhode Island, moderate Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee is in a tough fight against Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, the former state attorney general. Party affiliation hurts Chafee the most in this case, as Rhode Island is obviously a clear blue state. In Missouri, incumbent Republican Jim Talent may lose to State Auditor Claire McCaskill. Talent is against raising the minimum wage, and against funding for stem cell research, while McCaskill favors both.
In the final analysis, it should be a very interesting election. If everything breaks right, the Democrats could take back the Senate. I expect the Democrats to secure victory in the House by about 10 to 15 seats. The Republicans currently have control in the House with a 230-201-1 majority, but large-scale change is coming, and Nancy Pelosi will be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Kevin Agnese is a student in the Washington Semester program.
