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Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024
The Eagle

Warning: Voters on election day are unpredictable

The election is tomorrow, and, to be perfectly honest, I am glad that campaign season is coming to an end. I've had enough with the mudslinging, the misleading commercials and the non-stop news coverage. The million-dollar question, of course, is who will control Congress after this election, and by what margin? After much analysis (and a few throws at a dartboard), I can conclude that the Democrats will seize control of the House while failing to regain control of the Senate.

As much as it pains me to write this, it seems that Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is very likely to become third in line for the presidency after this election. The Republicans have almost 50 seats that are not considered "safe," whether due to a scandal (Foley in Florida), a retirement (Nussle in Iowa), or a district that is more Democratic-leaning but with a Republican representative (Shays in Connecticut). While most polls show the Republicans retaining a good chunk of these vulnerable seats, the Democrats only need to take 15 of them to wrest control of the House away from the Republicans. To make matters even easier for the Democrats, they have less than 10 seats that are considered in danger. None seems likely to switch hands to the GOP.

The reason for this is that the Democrats have finally managed to run some successful campaigns. Back in August, I wrote that the Democrats were having difficulty taking anti-Republican sentiment and translating it into support for themselves. Well, it took months, but the Democrats are finally starting to find their voice and mobilize their base. Most of them have realized that simply criticizing the president or GOP policy is not enough to win. By trying to convince voters that this election is a referendum on President Bush and especially his Iraq policy, the Democrats are exploiting an extremely hot-button issue and touting their candidates' anti-war policies. They have found an issue that is resonating with voters, found candidates who represent these views and are hammering the Republicans when they disagree. Karl Rove couldn't write a better strategy.

It's not all sunshine and rainbows for the Democrats, however. They are running less successfully in the Senate, where it is very difficult to lose as an incumbent. Several Republicans are, it seems, likely to lose, including (unfortunately) the conservative icon of the Senate, Rick Santorum. However, while the Republicans will probably see themselves with a weakened majority, the numbers are not in the Democrats' favor to retake the Senate. There are simply not enough vulnerable Republican incumbents. Many of the so-called most competitive races that the pundits have been discussing to death have Democratic incumbents. When it comes to control of the Senate, who cares if the Republicans are getting clobbered in, say, the Minnesota Senate race, when the retiring incumbent was already a Democrat? The Democrats will pick up seats in the Senate, but most of the seats that they will "win" on Election Day were already theirs. The Republicans also have an outside shot in states such as Maryland and New Jersey to pick up currently Democratic seats.

Ultimately, the reason Republicans will find themselves with reduced majorities is a matter of numbers. There were many weak Republican candidates. Why is this? The idea of coattails - candidates in the House or Senate riding on the popularity of the president to victory - is a major factor. When midterms roll along, weaker incumbents who used the charisma of the president to get elected the first time find themselves struggling out there "on their own" during their next election. However, historically, the recent GOP control of Congress has been nearly unprecedented. Usually, the president's party loses seats during midterms, but the Republicans defied the odds last midterm, gaining eight House and two Senate seats. Only two other presidents besides Bush have gained seats in a midterm election since the Civil War, so for the Republicans to lose seats this election is nothing shocking - it's just disappointing.

Caleb Enerson is a sophomore in the School of Public Affairs

and a conservative columnist for The Eagle.


Section 202 hosts Connor Sturniolo and Gabrielle McNamee are joined by fellow Eagle staff member and phenomenal sports photographer, Josh Markowitz. Follow along as they discuss the United Football League and the benefits it provides for the world of professional football.


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