While I do not buy the extraordinary emphasis political pundits place on the expectations game, it is an integral part of campaign politics. A candidate's ability to meet, exceed or fall short of his or her expectations will certainly play a big role in 2008, and as it stands now, only two candidates are in prime position to exceed their expectations: Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton.
Mitt Romney came out of the political hinterland for a conservative - Massachusetts. With only four years in elected office and a history of liberal stances, everyone expects Romney to start adopting more and more conservative positions in order to appeal to his base. Or, that he will "flip flop" (Lord how I hate that phrase).
But the expectation that he's a pandering flip-flopper is the one Romney can easily exceed. If Romney comes out seeming like he has half of a conviction, he has already beaten his critics' expectations. Genuinely interested in most of what he says, attendees walk away from Romney's stump speech impressed, not necessarily because he speaks with Reagan-esque certitude but because they expect him to be vague and non-committal and he is ... well ... committed.
While Sen. John Kerry met his waffling reputation with full force, Romney is learning from Kerry's mistakes by not offering up any convoluted and complex explanations of how he "really meant this all along."
Instead, Romney says, "I changed my mind." Ta-da! It is very straightforward, and while it may anger some people, it allows him to speak with assurance and absolute conviction without coming off as a panderer.
Hillary Clinton is doing Mitt Romney's strategy one better. For years, Clinton has been living a brilliant political stunt: setting her own expectations instead of responding to the expectations heaped upon her.
Clinton has already positioned herself as a tough, hard-nosed leader. Indeed, polling clearly shows Clinton to be perceived as the strongest of all the candidates on both sides of the aisle. So, Clinton is trying to move expectations away from strong leadership towards a more emotional realm.
Ask any non-Clinton-supporting Democrat why they dislike her, and they will respond the same way: "Well, I think she's fine, but she's so cold and polarizing - I just worry she can't win the general election."
And there you have it: Clinton has set the expectation that she is cold, calculating, ruthless and ambitious. The bar has been set so low for her level of charm and charisma that as long as she does not walk out on stage and bite the head off a chicken, people love her.
The most common thing in the local papers after a Clinton rally is how people were shocked at how nice she is and how personable and funny they found her. The entire tenor of the campaign so far has been "she's not as mean as you think!"
Look at the way her staff refers to her as "Hillary" in official press releases or "The Sopranos" spoof. Clinton and her husband are poking fun at themselves with the mafia-throwback (the perception that Hillary is a political Mafioso, cold and murderous), and she performs so well in the ad that she comes off as genuinely charming, even disarmingly genial.
In the end, it's the candidates without the high expectations that will benefit during this primary. Mitt Romney has already experienced an increase in media coverage and campaign contributions due to his second quarter jump past his expectations, and Clinton will see a similar rise in poll numbers as her public performances show her to be, gasp, friendly.
You can expect it.
Roddy Flynn is a senior in the School of Public Affairs and a liberal columnist for The Eagle.
