With no front-runners or serious contenders in the running, this year's Academy Awards race is marked with disappointment. Typically, at this point in the season, studios release their most award-friendly films - either starring a deglamorized Halle Berry as a struggling mother or a kitchen sink sob-fest. To that extent, 2007 seems no different than any other year.
However, what differentiates 2007's Oscar race from previous years is a sheer lack of contenders already established in the mix. In the past, films such as last year's "Little Miss Sunshine," Best Picture-winning "Crash" and "Seabiscuit" were already released and cemented in the race. Earlier this year, numerous Oscar-prediction Web sites figured that such films as "Lions for Lambs," "In The Valley of Elah" and "Rendition" would enter the race because each explored timely themes of terrorism, war and torture. Indeed, the films, to differing degrees, have proven that audiences and critics alike are growing wary of heavy-handed, politically charged films, and now, more than ever, tend to favor happier cinematic fare.
This year's best-reviewed films thus far include Brad Bird's "Ratatouille" and Judd Apatow's "Knocked Up," both of which are untraditional award contenders due to their respective genres. The last and sole animated film to score a Best Picture nomination was Disney's "Beauty and the Beast," and since the Academy created the Best Animated Feature category in 2001, it has become nearly impossible for an animated film to make the Best Picture shortlist. As for "Knocked Up," its endearingly crass nature is what will ultimately prevent it from being considered a legitimate contender.
Indeed, the Academy has been warming up to comedies lately, as displayed in their adoration for "Little Miss Sunshine" and "Sideways." Yet Apatow's film, while widely seen and critically lauded, is probably too graphic for older voters.
The only other films that arguably have a stake in the race are "American Gangster" and "Michael Clayton," and critics prefer the latter while audiences favor the former. After awarding "The Departed" the coveted Best Picture last year, the Academy might not be eager to celebrate another ultraviolent crime drama such as "American Gangster." As for "Michael Clayton," it is ultimately George Clooney who keeps the film in consideration. Each year, there is normally a "smart adult drama" slot in the Best Picture lineup, with previous examples including "The Queen" and "Good Night, and Good Luck." While "Michael Clayton" is, thus far, the most likely candidate for the spot, it simply does not generate the adequate buzz required to keep indie contenders in the mix.
If anything, the alarming lack of Oscar candidates puts a great deal of pressure on upcoming fall releases. Critics cannot take any more disappointment, so films such as Joe Wright's "Atonement," the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" and P.T. Anderson's "There Will Be Blood" are going to be met with heightened expectations. Naturally, though, there will be a sleeper hit, such as the Best Picture-winning "Million Dollar Baby," "Letters from Iwo Jima" or "Munich," that makes a surprise entry into the Oscar race. At this point, that film could be Jason Reitman's "Juno," which chronicles the offbeat tale of a teenage girl's unexpected pregnancy and took critics by storm at the Toronto International Film Festival.
Until the critics' awards are handed out mid-December, 2007's Oscar race is unnervingly wide-open compared to prior years. At this point, it is truly anyone's game.
