With seven wins in a row after Tuesday’s victory over the New York Islanders, there is no question that the Washington Capitals are the hottest team in hockey, but are they peaking too early?
Washington is first in the Eastern Conference. The Caps have the second best home record as well as the third best road record in the Conference. To top it off, they have scored 202 goals in the season — good enough for first in the league. All of this is great and by no means is there any reason to scrutinize the way the team is playing, but one has to worry about whether they can keep this up in the second half of the season. Because in reality, will this success matter once April rolls around?
The simple answer is yes — and no. It is important in the sense that all the points Washington has earned thus far will take some of the pressure off the team when it needs to rest towards the end of the season. The Caps may be an all-but-sure lock for the playoffs, but at this rate, they could wear themselves out and lose in the first round. It will be for nothing. It seems so trivial to question winning and whether or not doing it too early in the season is a bad thing, but it has been a factor in almost every major sport.
This year in football provides a good example. The Cincinnati Bengals started out the season as one of the hottest teams in football winning seven of their first 10 games. They snagged a playoff spot after sweeping their division on Nov. 15. Just two weeks later, the team went on to lose five of its last eight games, including a loss to the New York Jets in the first round of the playoffs. With no major injuries, the only logical explanation is that they simply ran out of gas. They hit their stride as a team after they beat the Steelers that Sunday in November, and they just failed to regain the same intensity the rest of the season.
It’s not just in football; the NHL has seen it too. In fact, the league seems to have one team every year who is unable to replicate their regular season success in the playoffs. The New Jersey Devils were last year’s team that peaked too early. After a spotty start to the season, the Devils rattled off eight straight wins, with the first coming on Jan. 13, 2009. They got on a roll and had few losses until the end of March. On March 22, 2009, after almost two months of solid hockey, they lost six straight and fizzled through the end of the season and in the first round of the postseason.
There is no scientific proof to back up the claim that a team hitting its stride too early will amount to failure in the postseason, but it is something all teams should worry about. At this point, the Caps can help themselves gather momentum at the right time.
Over an 82-game season, teams will always have peaks and valleys in the way they are playing. The key is controlling when the peaks and valleys occur. In Washington’s schedule for instance, there is a stretch in March where they have many games against the Southeast Division. Assuming they do not fall too far from first place, resting players here is not such a bad idea. The games will largely be meaningless, and a less than 100 percent team should have no trouble dispatching of the Eastern Conference’s bottom-feeders.
The rest comes with a caveat. The team must begin to gain momentum March 24 against the Pittsburgh Penguins. An embarrassing loss to their archrival could kill team morale. Instead, some good wins here would allow the Caps to feel good about their game as they finish the season with two games against the Boston Bruins, one against the Atlanta Thrashers and one against the Penguins. Playing well in these games is crucial because they are essentially dress rehearsals for the first round of the playoffs.
If Washington can hit their stride going into the first round, they will be a tough team to beat. When the Caps have played confidently, few teams have been able to stop them. Just ask the Islanders who lost to them 7-2 on Tuesday. The team’s winning ways are nothing to scoff at, but they must remember that it is more important to win when it matters and that time is in the playoffs.
You can reach this staff writer at atomlinson@theeagleonline.com.
