Josh Johnson, Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, C.J. Wilson and Francisco Liriano. What do all these guys have in common? All are starting pitchers with ERAs under 3.50 in 2010, and all have had Tommy John surgery.
The news that Stephen Strasburg will most likely need the surgery isn’t good, but let’s not start calling him Mark Prior 2.0 quite yet.
When Prior was drafted by the Chicago Cubs with the second overall pick in the 2001 MLB draft, he was viewed by many as a future ace. He showed why in 2003 when he posted an 18-6 record with a 2.43 ERA. However, the success didn’t last long as Prior suffered many injuries, mostly to his throwing shoulder.
Because of the hype that accompanied both Prior and Strasburg as they made their way to the major leagues, many have compared the two. However, the two injuries are not the same: elbow injuries are obviously a bad thing, and in the case of Strasburg, his will keep him out for at least a year.
But shoulder injuries, on the other hand, are much worse. More players return from elbow injuries than shoulder injuries, according to an article by Gina Brockenbrough in “Orthopedics Today.” Brockenbrough points to a study done by Dr. Steven B. Cohen in which he reported that out of 44 pitchers who were studied as they underwent either shoulder or elbow surgery, 17 percent more players undergoing elbow surgery returned to their previous level of performance.
In baseball, Tommy John surgery is not even seen as risky as it once was. Every year several pitchers have this surgery. It is believed that close to 90 percent of Major League pitchers who have Tommy John surgery will make a full recovery. This is not to say that Strasburg will definitely come back and be the same pitcher he was prior to surgery, but the odds are in his favor. In a best case scenario, the surgery will allow Strasburg to improve his mechanics and help prevent future injuries.
For the Nationals, the loss of Strasburg in 2011 is disappointing but not devastating. This team with Strasburg is still a few players away from competing for a playoff spot. Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina manning center and right field are just not adequate for a playoff contender.
This team has some holes to fill over the next few seasons, with or without Strasburg.
The only impact outfielder on the free agent market this offseason will be Tampa Bay Rays left fielder, Carl Crawford, and he is not believed to be a part of the Nationals’ future, though the team has expressed interest.
In terms of position players, the team should look pretty similar to the 2010 team, though Adam Dunn, their big-slugging first baseman, is a free agent. If he signs elsewhere, the team’s offense becomes much worse.
Where the Nationals will really miss Strasburg is in the business department. With no Strasburg in 2011, season ticket sales for the Nats are sure to go down. Way down.
Anyone who was in D.C. when Strasburg made his debut on June 8, where he struck out 14 Pittsburgh Pirate hitters, knows the buzz this guy created from the beginning. He packed stadiums for every game he pitched. On non-Strasburg days, the stadium has appeared nearly half empty.
Unfortunately, that’s what it will probably look like for the majority of the 2011 season. The Nats will most likely be a subpar team with no real excitement to attract fans to the ballpark.
However, when it comes to Strasburg’s long-term future, he should be fine. There was a time when Tommy John surgery was seen as a risky procedure. Those days are gone. The surgery is performed on players every year, and more often than not, the player returns to his previous level of play.
Is it possible that Strasburg will never be the same pitcher again? Of course. There is never a guarantee with any injury that the player will come back and be as good as before he got hurt.
However, if all goes according to plan, Strasmas, or Strasover, or Strasmahanukwanzakah will be celebrated once again.
sports@theeagleonline.com
